NCJ Number
241412
Date Published
January 2013
Length
49 pages
Annotation
This report presents Texas' adult and juvenile correctional population projections for fiscal years (FY 2013 to 2018) in preparation for the 83rd Texas Legislature (2013).
Abstract
Data on Texas arrest rates from calendar years 2010 to 2011 show that adult arrests decreased 6.1 percent. Juvenile arrest rates decreased 15.0 percent during this same period. The Texas adult incarceration population is projected to remain relatively stable in fiscal years 2013 and 2014 and begin a gradual increase through fiscal year 2018 with an assumed parole approval rate of 34.0 percent. Factors affecting this increase are a slight increase in felony community supervision revocations and an increase in direct court commitments tempered by an increase in releases to parole supervision. Under current practices and statutes, the incarcerated population is projected to increase to 153,885 by the end of the 2014-15 biennium, and to 156,877 by the end of fiscal year 2018. The adult parole supervision population is projected to increase moderately for each year of the projection. Under current practices and statutes, the parole supervision population is projected to average 88,893 by the end of the 2014-15 biennium and to average 90,203 in fiscal year 2018. Under current practices and statutes, the adult felony community supervision population is projected to average 165,225 by the end of the 2014-15 biennium and to 95,698 placements at the end of fiscal year 2018. The Texas Juvenile Justice Department State residential population is projected to decline slightly through fiscal year 2018. Lower admissions to State residential facilities are a major factor for this decline. Under current practices and statutes, the juvenile residential population is projected to be 1,292 by the end of the 2014-15 biennium and 1,236 by the end of fiscal year 2018. 10 tables, 12 figures, and appended supplementary data