Accuracy of Prediction Models (From Criminal Careers and 'Career Criminals,' Volume II, P 212-290, 1986, Alfred Blumstein, et al, eds. - See NCJ-102772)

• NCJ Number: 102778
• Author(s): S D Gottfredson; D M Gottfredson
• Date Published: 1986
• Length: 79 pages
• Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/; National Academies Press; NCJRS Photocopy Services
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America
• Note: For microfiche, see NCJ-102772.

Annotation

A review of literature on prediction in criminal justice settings focuses on the accuracy of predictions and the usefulness of statistically developed decisionmaking tools intended for practical use.

Abstract

The analysis focuses on bail and pretrial release decisions and on decisions involving prosecution, sentencing, and parole. A discussion of decisionmaking emphasizes its nature and role in criminal justice settings. The accuracy of predictive decisionmaking is examined in terms of the types of information generally observed to be predictive, their general level of accuracy, and the accuracy of equations or models of criminal justice decisions. Variables that predict offender behavior and the decisions of criminal justice personnel are compared. A discussion of the usefulness of existing or proposed statistically developed decisionmaking tools accompanies a summary of ways to improve their accuracy. A hypothetical case example uses a decision comparing selective incapacitation with selective deinstitutionalization. Figures, footnotes, and 273 references.