Re-Entry: Dynamic Risk Assessment

• NCJ Number: 238075
• Author(s): Robert D. Morgan Ph.D.; Daryl G. Kroner Ph.D.; Jeremy F. Mills Ph.D.
• Date Published: January 2011
• Length: 129 pages
• Grant Number(s): 2007-IJ-CX-0027
• Agencies: NIJ-Sponsored
• Publication Type: Report (Study/Research)

Annotation

In emphasizing reentry after incarceration as a dynamic process rather than an event (crime/no crime) this study is considered an initial step toward providing those who supervise parolees with tools to make an accurate assessment of a change in risk (dynamic risk factors) and hence a change in the likelihood of re-offending.

Abstract

The study found that the inclusion of dynamic risk factors in assessment did not contribute to the predictive power of static variables. The study found that changes in offenders' dynamic functioning were not associated with changes in community outcomes. Thus, measuring change in offenders' functioning using rated measures did not increase researchers' ability to predict failure in reentry. On the other hand, offenders were able to self-report on personal perceptions of risk areas that were predictive of reentry failure. This suggests that offenders should provide input for the criminal risk assessment. In addition, the measures used were better at predicting criminal risk for White offenders, but they were less accurate in predicting criminal behavior for non-White offenders. This suggests that current measures of risk prediction may not be culturally sensitive. The study obtained data from 133 male offenders paroled from the Texas Department of Criminal Justice correctional facilities from June 11, 2008 - January 31, 2011. Study participants had a mean age of 34.9 years and were predominantly Black (33.8 percent) or White (19.5 percent); 45 percent were Hispanic. Study participants were primarily convicted of nonviolent offenses (85.3 percent), and 52 percent failed a prior sentence of community supervision. Participants were recruited to participate in a seven-wave data-collection procedure upon reentry to the community, with a monthly follow-up for a minimum of 6 months. Risk assessment measures were designed to determine criminal risk. 26 tables, 2 figures, and extensive references