U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government, Department of Justice.

Anticipating Community Drug Problems

NCJ Number
Date Published
February 1992
88 pages
Data from Washington, D.C., and Portland, Oregon, were used to extend the use of arrestee urinalysis results in community planning by examining the relationships among arrestee drug consumption analysis and drug-related emergency room episodes, deaths from drug overdoses, crimes, and cases of child abuse and neglect. Data set archived by the NIJ Data Resources Program at the National Archive of Criminal Justice Data, located at URL http://www.icpsr.umich.edu/nacjd.
The research developed a three-stage public health model of drug diffusion and the community drug indicators as aggregate measures of individual drug abuse use careers. The analysis used monthly data on drug indicators from the two jurisdictions (April 1984 through September 1990 for Washington and January 1988 through September 1990 for Portland) to estimate the correlations among drug problem indicators over time and to examine these correlations at different stages in the spread of a new form of drug abuse. The analysis also estimated lagged models in which the results of arrestee urinalysis were used to predict subsequent community drug problems. Results revealed that indicators of cocaine and PCP use peaked in the same years and began to decline in the same years. Arrestee urinalysis was the first indicator to signal a significant period of increasing problems, with both PCP and cocaine. Beyond the initial phase, consistent short-term relationships were not found. Based on conservative time-series models, drugs that exhibited little long-term trends across the study period appeared uncorrelated with other community drug problems. Figures, tables, appended codebook information, and 39 references (Author abstract modified)

Date Published: February 1, 1992