NCJ Number
39860
Date Published
1975
Length
350 pages
Annotation
THE DIAGNOSTIC PAROLE PREDICTION INDEX (DPPI) PROJECT WAS UNDERTAKEN TO DETERMINE WHETHER A PAROLE PREDICTION INSTRUMENT COULD BE DEVELOPED ACCORDING TO A MODEL COMBINING STATISTICAL PREDICTION WITH CASE STUDIES.
Abstract
THE PRIMARY GOALS OF THIS RESEARCH WERE: 1) TO DEMONSTRATE THAT PREDICTIVE INFORMATION REGARDING PAROLE OUTCOME CAN BE FUSED WITH CLINICAL CONCERNS; 2) TO COMPARE THE ACCURACY OF SEVERAL PREDICTION MODELS; AND 3) TO DESIGN AND FIELD TEST SEVERAL UNDERSTANDABLE DPPI FORMATS. USING A DATA BASE OF 200 VARIABLES COLLECTED ON 4,146 CALIFORNIA YOUTH AUTHORITY WARDS, WITH A 15 MONTH FOLLOW-UP, THE PROJECT SOUGHT TO DEVELOP AN INSTRUMENT THAT WAS SIMPLE ENOUGH FOR FIELD USE BUT SUFFICIENTLY ACCURATE IN ITS STATISTICAL PREDICTION OF PAROLE OUTCOME. HOWEVER, STATISTICAL ANALYSES INDICATED THAT THE CONFIGURATED METHODS MOST EFFICIENT IN PREDICTING PAROLE OUTCOME WERE REJECTED BY THE CLINICIANS AS TOO COMPLEX. IT WAS CONCLUDED THAT THE RESOLUTION OF THIS IMPASSE WILL REQUIRE ADDITIONAL EFFORTS TO DEVELOP NEW APPROACHES TO THE DESIRED CLINICAL SYNTHESIS. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT MODIFIED)...MSP